Results of Financial Model Literature Scan

Potential financial planning tools may include technical models for forecasting expenses, revenues, and risk. The Volpe Center conducted a literature review to assess the state of the financial forecasting practice and potentially to expand the body of knowledge concerning the development and use of these tools. The results of the literature scan, presented in the table below, were narrowed from a wide search of academic and research literature written from 2008 to the present concerning: financial planning, revenue and cost forecasting, fiscal constraint, financial-constraint, and financial planning tools and models. The search revealed that there is not a great deal of literature available on recent new applications, models, techniques, or best practices in transportation financial planning. Among the most relevant articles and reports were two reports on standardized financial models in Texas: the TRENDS (Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System) model and the JACK (Joint Analysis using Combined Knowledge), both of which address highway finances only. The literature also documents a study of the estimation of statewide project funding shortfalls based on information in long-range plans and discussion of some of the challenges faced by States when forecasting revenue.